000 AGXX40 KNHC 191856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER THAN IN THE SW GULF FOR WED. THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING AND STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 28N90W WHERE IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE VERY NICELY. A WEAK MESO LOW IS NOTED SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 21N97W. LATEST BUOYS...CMAN STATIONS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS SHOW STRAIGHT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 87W...AND E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 1-2 FT E OF THE FRONT...AND 5-8 FT BEHIND IT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR TO HAVE NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. A REINFORCING FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF...AND AT 18 UTC STRETCHES FROM SW LOUISIANA TO ABOUT BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL SOON MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AND THE MERGED FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF TONIGHT...THEN SLOW DOWN AGAIN DURING MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. THE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME NE 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF...AND DIMINISH FURTHER TO 10-15 KT SUN. THE SEAS OF 6-8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT LOWER TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT...TO 3-5 FT SUN...AND TO 2-3 FT MON. LATEST MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS ONES IN DEPICTING ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF PORTION ON WED. MOST MODELS SHOW ABOUT 20-25 KT OF WINDS FUNNELING S INTO THE WESTERN AND SW GULF WED...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS HINTS AT WINDS OF 30 KT THERE (ZONE 23). CONSIDERING THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28.0 TO 28.5 DEG CELSIUS ARE PRESENT THERE...I WOULD THINK THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW OF THE COLD DENSE AIR SHOW MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SINCE THE HIGH PRES TO THE NW OF THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SURGE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PRESENT ONE. WILL INTRODUCE A BRIEF SHOT OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SW GULF FOR WED...AND ADJUST THE SEAS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AS WELL FOR THAT PERIOD. THESE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT INTO THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE TROUGH N OF AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING MAINTAIN WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE E BREEZE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 4-5 FT IN NE SWELLS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ALTC ZONES. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING W ABOUT 5-10 KT. THE 1340 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED A SUBTLE NE TO E WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE N OF 15N. BOTH BUOY 42059 AT 15N67.5 AND BUOY 42060 AT 16N63W LIKEWISE SHOWED THE SAME IN THE WINDS. THE WAVE APPEARS SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED IN MORNING ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY. IT SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 70W/71W BY DAYBREAK SUN...TO NEAR 76W/77W BY EARLY MON...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 58W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE W OF THE WAVE INTO THE SE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN E OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BY MON EVENING. BY TUE THE WAVE...JUST LIKE THE FIRST...SHOULD BE ILL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ASIDE FROM SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALREADY MENTIONED NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM BOTH THESE WAVES...HOWEVER THE WAVES WILL KEEP THE PRES GRADIENT WEAK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS PEAKING NEAR 20 KT OFF COLOMBIA AND OCCASIONALLY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WAVE/TROUGH FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THU. THE GFS IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING NE TO E WINDS N AND NE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES TO ITS NE INTENSIFIES. FOR NOW WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT FOR EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC FOR WED AND THU. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS REQUIRED PER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BUILD TO 6-8 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SET OF NE SWELLS ARRIVE FROM THE CENTRAL EASTERN ATLC. THESE SEA HEIGHT WILL ALSO ATTRIBUTED TO THOSE EXPECTED FROM THE WAVE/TROUGH NEXT WEEK THROUGH THESE WATERS AS STATED ABOVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT TO GENTLE WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE BASIN UNDER A WEAK PRES PATTERN. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING NW NEAR 27N73W IS UNDER RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N78W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NW THROUGH SUN WHILE WEAKENING TO A WEAK TROUGH. A LARGE POSITIVELY- TILTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...TO A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N72W TO 29N81W BY SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN BY MON EVENING AS SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT NE OF THE AREA...AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG 30N. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ON WED AS STRONG FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS JUST N OF THE AREA. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CENTRAL HIGH ATLC HIGH PRESS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SW WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.