000 AGXX40 KNHC 190747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND SREF BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FOR GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ELSEWHERE GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MWW3 FOR SEAS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING AND STALLED FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF THIS MORNING FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NW GULF...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER SHOW MODERATE E TO SE FLOW N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. LIGHT E TO SE FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. A REINFORCING FRONT IS PUSHING RAPIDLY THROUGH TEXAS CURRENTLY. THIS WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING...BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT OFF SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE GFS AND SREF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY THE REINFORCED FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO...BEFORE STALLING THEN RETROGRADING NORTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NW BY LATE MON NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ BY LATE WED AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GFS RUN. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE FIRST THRUSTS OF COLD AIR ADVECT OVER THE STILL FAIRLY WARM GULF WATERS ALLOW POTENT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW FOR THE VERACRUZ COAST FOR WED...BUT FORECAST MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A GALES EXPECTED COMMENT FOR GMZ023 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE TROUGH N OF AREA BRINGS LOOSE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE E BREEZE AND SEAS 4-5 FT THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING NW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...MERGING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE AREA NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON. THESE MOVEMENT OF THESE WAVES WILL KEEP THE PRES GRADIENT WEAK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS PEAKING NEAR 20 KT OFF COLOMBIA AND OCCASIONALLY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 27N72W DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST ALONG 50W. THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THROUGH TODAY...ALLOWING THE LOW PRES TO OPEN INTO TO A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG ROUGHLY 72W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E SLIGHTLY SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO 29N81W BY LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN BY LATE MON AS SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT NE OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG 30N. DESPITE SOME VARIANCE IN OPINION AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS A REINFORCING IMPULSE BRINGING THE FRONT SE AGAIN BY WED...PRECEDED BY FRESH SW FLOW N OF 28N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.