000
AGXX40 KNHC 181857
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM BIG BEND IN FLORIDA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WIND FLOW BEHIND FRONT CARRY SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. FRONT
DISSIPATES TONIGHT AND OVERRUNNING MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
KEEP NW GULF CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY INTO LATE FRI. COLD
FRONT PUSH OFF TEXAS SE COAST EARLY SAT BRINGING ROUND OF FRESH TO
STRONG N FLOW TO NE GULF W OF FRONT SAT AND SUN. COLD FRONT STALLS
AS DRIVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NE LATE SUN. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING NW GULF LATE
TUE INTO WED WITH N WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN W OF COLD FRONT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE TROUGH N OF AREA BRINGS LOOSE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE E BREEZE AND SEAS 4-5 FT THROUGHOUT BASIN. 
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY
AFFECT AMZ127...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WIND OR SEA
CONDITIONS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH ONLY
AN INCREASE IN TSTMS BY SUN E OF 65W.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE IN WAKE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N
OF AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER N CUBA BRINGS
DRY STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS INTO BASIN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN PLACE. SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF UPPER
LEVEL ONE...ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DECREASES WEATHER AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH WEEKEND. WEAK FRONT PUSH OFF NE FLORIDA SUN 
REACHING FROM 31N73W TO 29N81W LATE SUN BEFORE STALLING AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE MON. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA COAST WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.