000 AGXX40 KNHC 180732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW ACROSS THE NW GULF TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. BUOY AND ASCAT DATA FROM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOW MODERATE NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS ARE NOTED...WITH A COUPLE OF BUOYS IN THE THE NE GULF SHOWING FLAT SEAS. THE STALLING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SE GULF...MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO SAT. THE OVER RUNNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE NW GULF CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY INTO SAT. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT...BRINGING A ROUND OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N TO NE FLOW TO THE NE GULF FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO TAMAULIPAS IN NE MEXICO SAT INTO SUN. THE GFS AND SREF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DEPICTING THIS. THE EVENT ENDS SUN WITH THE NEXT FRONT STALLING AS WELL WHEN THE DRIVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NE SUN INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING E THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY TUE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHT GRADIENT WILL HERALD A MORE PROLONGED PUSH OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN GULF...REACHING THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGH N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA. ATLC BUOYS INDICATE NE SWELL OF 4 TO 6 FT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS E OF THE ANTILLES. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN AMZ127...RELATED TO INSTABILITY DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED...ONE MOVING NW THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE OTHER E OF AREA ALONG 50W S OF 15N. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WESTERNMOST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN TROUGHING N OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES WESTWARD REACHING THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...THESE TROPICAL WAVES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE WIND TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE AND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N64W WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING S TO PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT E AHEAD OF A BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N69W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PULSING ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES INTO A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED N OF 29N ALONG 74W AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFF NE FLORIDA SUN...REACHING FROM 31N73W TO 29N81W BY LATE SUN BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE MON AS IT DRIFTS E N OF 28N. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DISCORD REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UKMET AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWING A PASSAGE BY LATE TUE...EARLIER THAN THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS THAT HINT OF A WEAKER AND SLOWER FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.