000
AGXX40 KNHC 161815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
U.S. CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SEA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 
2 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREA OF 3 FT SEAS IN THE NW GULF. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR SAN 
ANTONIO TX WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND 
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO S TEXAS THU. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT 
BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS THU 
NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS A STRONG FRONT 
INTO THE NW GULF SAT...WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MON... 
EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. SINCE 
ECMWF IS ONLY MODEL SO AGGRESSIVE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH AND A 
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND...USED GFS MODEL AS PRIMARY 
FCST GUIDANCE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF 
THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...THROUGH MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING 
FROM W OF BERMUDA ACROSS BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN 
PRODUCING LARGE AREA OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI OR SAT. TROUGHING N OF THE AREA 
WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND LIGHT SEAS ACROSS 
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN. 3-4 FT E TO NE SWELL WILL AFFECT 
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS 
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND LIGHT SEAS 
THROUGH MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.