000
AGXX40 KNHC 151805
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF WATERS WED. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS BY EARLY THU...FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS FRI MORNING AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO SE TEXAS SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL N ATLC...3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
THU...THEN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. WITH BROAD
TROUGHING PREVAILING N OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN LOOSE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS ON THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN NE SWELL E OF THE
BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS IN
ACTIVE CONVECTION LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH WHERE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS MUCH OF THE WEEK THEN IS EXPECTED DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. WITH BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE AREA...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.