000
AGXX40 KNHC 131803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE
IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK MAINTAINING THE RETURN
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. GENTLE
TO LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS REMAINING
IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD BY
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
INTO THE NW GULF WED. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO NE MEXICO BY LATE THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN A MIX OF
NE AND E SWELL. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN MON THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.
THE WAVE WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE WINDS AND SEAS.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
WEAKENING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THU THEN MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THU. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE IN NE SWELL OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS
AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING PUSHED WESTWARD
BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.