000
AGXX40 KNHC 121818
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND IN
THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEAK MAINTAINING THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS
IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 1-3 FT
RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETREAT EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK
ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST BY WED
NIGHT...AND ENTERING THE NW GULF EARLY THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IN A MIX OF NE AND E SWELL. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN MON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WED. THE WAVE WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE WINDS AND
SEAS. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE WATERS N OF THE
AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH NEXT THU. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AT 20 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NE AND E SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY...TO
4-6 FT BY TUE. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT MAINLY GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND
1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THIS AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.