000
AGXX40 KNHC 100735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE 
EASTWARD THROUGH MON ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP 
ACROSS THE NW GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR 
LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. WINDS 
WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME E-NE MON AND TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 3-4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH FRI THEN INLAND SAT. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST. 
NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 
WILL REACH THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY...AND E 
SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...WITH MEDIUM POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN. STRONG 
WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SHEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEM APART BY 
THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE REGION TUE AND WED. AS A RESULT... 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR THE 
OUTER BANKS ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA...WHERE 
IT BECOMES STATIONARY. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE 
TO FRESH N-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIGHT TO 
GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND 
THE FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL 
TROUGH TODAY FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH 
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN AND DRIFT EASTWARD. 
THIS WILL INDUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE 
AREA FRI THROUGH SUN ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR LESS. 
HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL 
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT...AND INCREASE NE WINDS IN NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA...MON AND TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.