000
AGXX40 KNHC 070700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E 
BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE. FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
IN THE NW GULF SUN MORNING SHOWED SEAS TO 8-9 FT...BUT RECENT 
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE HIGHEST SEAS ARE 5-7 FT NEAR THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 
TAMPICO. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW E WINDS TO STRENGTHEN IN THE 
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO 22N66W WILL DRIFT NW 
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING 
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL RESULT IN FRESH E-SE WINDS IN THE FAR NE 
PORTION OF THE AREA BY MON. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT PUSHING E IS WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MOST 
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH N FLORIDA COAST BY 
TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TUE AND WED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH 
FLORIDA WILL ALLOW THE DISSIPATING FRONT TO SAG A LITTLE FARTHER 
S THU AND FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND 
NE FLORIDA WED AND THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.