000
AGXX40 KNHC 061813
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
213 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. GOOD CONFIDENCE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN BECOMING WEAK AND DIFFUSE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS OF
20-25 KT AND SEAS ARE STEADILY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM DEGRADES
OVER WATER. AS A RESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND IS DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT 06/1500 UTC. AT THIS TIME...THE
LAST ADVISORY IS ISSUED BY THE NHC. THE REMNANT LOW WILL MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT...FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE MON
NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY TUE. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. IN
FACT...A COUPLE OF BUOYS IN THE NW GULF ARE SHOWING SEAS OF 8-9
FT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES AND N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION MON THROUGH WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE 
THE PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHEN EASTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N62W TO 23N66W WILL DRIFT NW
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH A HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA
BY MON.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD IS ALLOWING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF KAREN JUST S OF SE LOUISIANA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA WED AND THU...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 7-8 FT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
JUST NE OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL INDUCE WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS NE PORTION TUE AND WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.