000
AGXX40 KNHC 060720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATELLITE SIGNATURE CONTINUES TO SHOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN 
BECOMING WEAK AND DIFFUSE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION IT IS DISPLACED WELL SE 
OF THE LOW CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS 
INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM 
DEGRADES OVER WATER. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE S AND E TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME 
STATIONARY TUE. HIGH PRES AND N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE 
REGION MON THROUGH WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. GOOD CONFIDENCE.  

WEAK HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE 
THE PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHEN EASTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD IS ALLOWING THE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN S OF LOUISIANA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING 
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 
THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME 
STATIONARY ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT TUE THROUGH THU WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA WED 
AND THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NE OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL 
INDUCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE PORTION TUE AND WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.