000
AGXX40 KNHC 051820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR KAREN BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS 
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES OF MODELS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY.

THE CENTER OF T.S. KAREN REMAINS EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG SW SHEAR
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA LOCATED SE OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF 11-12
FT. THE NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KAREN TO REMAIN
A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT UNTIL FINAL
LANDFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
AND AIRCRAFT MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE
IF THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. BASED ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE
COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SE TEXAS COAST SUN MORNING...REACHING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT...FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER
THE SE GULF BY TUE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
TO NEAR 7 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE
GULF WATERS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.  

HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WED. MUCH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE OFF EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF NE FLORIDA
WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS REMNANT LOW KAREN PASSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUN AND MON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PART TUE MORNING REACHING FROM
31N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUE NIGHT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE BY WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.