000
AGXX40 KNHC 050754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR KAREN BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS 
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES OF UKMET/ECMWF VS GFS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY.

T.S. KAREN CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG SW SHEAR... 
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. KAREN MOVING NW AS 
EXPECTED AS PER UKMET/ECMWF GUIDANCE. GFS ON OTHER HAND TURNS 
MORE TO THE E AND GETS INLAND NEAR FLORIDA BIG BEND...REASON FOR 
LOWER CONFIDENCE. DEEP LAYER TROUGH DRIVING STRONG SHEAR OVER 
KAREN WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DEPLETING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION 
FROM CENTER. KAREN MOVES INLAND EARLY SUN WITH WINDS AND SEAS 
QUICKLY DIMINISHING OVER GULF.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH BRING FRESH N WINDS BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN GULF...BUT SEAS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO BUILD ABOVE AROUND 6 FT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.  

HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF REGION WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA AS DEEP TROUGH 
CURRENTLY OVER GULF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS SW N ATLC. 
MUCH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF MID ATLC SEABOARD WILL KEEP GENTLE
TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS REGION. WINDS IN EXTREME NW 
CORNER OF BASIN N OF 29N W OF 77W MAY BRIEFLY SEE STRONG SE-S 
WINDS AS REMNANT LOW KAREN CROSSES GEORGIA LATE SUN AND MON. 
TIMING AND STRENGTH HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF KAREN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.