000
AGXX40 KNHC 031848
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR KAREN WITH GFS AND UKMET
BLEND WITH NWPS WAVES ELSEWHERE. GOOD CONFIDENCE AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

T.S. KAREN GRABS ALL THE MAIN HEADLINES FOR THE GULF FOR NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIFTING NW OVER WARMEST SPOT IN BASIN IT
INTENSIFIES TO HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS BUT WEAKENS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG SW SHEAR SOON AFTER. KAREN MOVES INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN WITH WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
OVER N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH FIRST 48 HOURS AND DIVERGE THEREAFTER...BY WHICH TIME
KAREN SHOULD BE OVER LAND.

MAIN FORCE STEERING KAREN TO THE NE IS LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH QUICKLY MOVES E ACROSS GULF
WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH 6-7 FT
SEAS ENTER WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 94W SUN AND QUICKLY SPREAD E
TO 90W AND S TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN DIMINISH TO FRESH N BREEZE
AND SEAS 4-5 FT BY TUE. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH NWW3 FOLLOWED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AS
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO.  

LINGERING EFFECTS OF T.S. KAREN FELT AS STRONG S WINDS IN EXTREME
NW CORNER OF BASIN BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY
WITH 9 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN CARIBBEAN
...FRESH FLOW E BREEZE REMAINS W OF 70W WITH MODERATE E-SE BREEZE
E OF 70W INCLUDING TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES THROUGH TUE AS GRADIENT
FLATTENS ONCE KAREN MOVES OUT OF BASIN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND NWW3 WITH A SPICE OF OFFICIAL T.S. KAREN
OVER EXTREME NW CORNER LATE IN PERIOD.

T.D. JERRY MOVED N OF 31N EARLIER TODAY AND GFS HAD COME CLOSER TO
UKMET SO CHANGES IN FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. 

HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB OFF EASTERN SEABOARD NEAR 34N74W KEEP
STEADY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E CIRCULATION AND SEAS BELOW 4 FT
ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN
IS INFLUENCE OF T.S. KAREN MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA LATE SUN THROUGH
MON WHICH MAY INCREASE S WINDS N OF 29N W OF 78W DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...CONSIDERING KAREN HAS BY THEN
BEEN OVER LAND FOR OVER A DAY.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
GMZ015...NONE. 
GMZ017...NONE. 
GMZ019...TROPICAL STORM WARNING INTO FRI.
GMZ021...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
GMZ023...NONE. 
GMZ025...TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. 
AMZ013...NONE. 
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE. 
AMZ019...NONE. 
AMZ021...NONE. 
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE. 
AMZ027...NONE. 
AMZ029...NONE. 
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE. 
AMZ035...NONE. 
AMZ037...NONE. 
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.