000
AGXX40 KNHC 021859
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH UKMET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON AL97 TRACK...INTENSITY REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN SEABOARD EXTEND DEEP INTO CENTRAL GULF
BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE GULF THROUGH
TODAY. SURFACE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT
18N85W DRIFT INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EXITS INTO
SOUTHERN CENTRAL GULF THU. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND THE
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE MODERATE.
ALL MODEL FOLLOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHICH BOOSTS ITS CERTAINTY BUT
LIMP IN ITS INTENSITY...WHICH ACCOUNT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE. EVEN IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...EASTERN GULF IS BOUND FOR
ABUNDANT CONVECTION...SOME STRONG...AND POSSIBLE NEAR GALE FORCE
SE TO S WINDS THU THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
BETWEEN 85W AND 89W WHERE FLOODING BECOMES THE CONCERN.  

ELSEWHERE...GRADIENT FLATTENS WITH LOW PRES OVER EASTERN GULF...SO
A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E BREEZE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. .

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ASSUMING AL97 MOVES OUT
OF BASIN TONIGHT.

LOW PRES CENTER 1008M MB...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT OF BASIN TONIGHT LEAVING FLAT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. MODELS
HAVING GOOD HANDLE ON RIDGE N OF AREA SO CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST IS
GOOD...PROVIDED LOW PRES FOLLOWS THE PLAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: UKMET-GFS MEAN BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
NO IMPACT DUE TO JERRY.

NHC FORECASTS KEEPS JERRY FAR E OF ZONES WITH NO IMPACT WHATSOEVER
...NOT EVEN SWELLS. WEAK LOW PRES JUST N OF AREA SKIRTS 31N TODAY
BRINGING MODERATE WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS N OF 30N. BUT THE HIGH
PRES CENTER 1020 MB NEAR 28N62W PROVIDES STEADY E-SE FLOW OF
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.