000 AGXX40 KNHC 020803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GEFS MEAN WITH DETAILS OF GFS UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY N AND OUT OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND WITH IT THE LIFT THAT HAS BEEN INDUCING SCT CONVECTION OFF TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER RIDGING OTHERWISE PREVAILS. LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS W CARIB ALONG ABOUT 85W EXTENDING N THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND REMNANTS OF LLVL VORT ACROSS ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE WITH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. MODELS TRENDING IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER AGREEMENT PAST 24 HOURS...AND PREFER TO USE GEFS MEAN TROF POSITION...WITH LOW DEVELOP OFF N OR NE END OF TROF THU AND LIFTING GENERALLY N TOWARD SE LA THROUGH FRI BEFORE BEGINNING TO VEER NE LATE FRI THROUGH WEEKEND. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WINDS ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AS IT SHIFTS OFF YUCATAN PENINSULA THU AND INCREASING TO 30 KT OR GREATER THU NIGHT-FRI. GFS ENSEMBLE PROBS BEGIN TO SHOW LOW CHANCES FOR GALES WITH THIS SYSTEM BY 18Z THU. THIS N TO NNW MOTION TOWARDS THE LA COAST THU FRI WILL ALLOW FOR MODESTLY ENHANCED WAVE GROWTH UNDER DYNAMIC FETCH AND NWPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS MAX SEAS 12 FT BASED ON 30 KT WIND MAX. CONTINUE TO PREFER NWPS TO WW3 OUTPUT DUE TO OVER AGGRESSIVENESS OF GFS ATTM. ASSOCIATED WIND SWELL WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL WATERS AND COASTS BETWEEN FL PANHANDLE AND MOUTH OF MS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT FOR VERY ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TIDES AND BEACH EROSION...AND GUARANTEED RIP CURRENTS. GLOBAL MODELS NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE UPPER CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS BUT A SMALL SEAM FOR ENHANCED OUTFLOW MAY EXIST. BANDS OF SQUALLS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT N INTO SE GULF AND WILL IMPACT S AND SW FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE WATERS NEXT 24 HOURS...AT LEAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS LOW PRES CENTER 1008 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW-MID LEVEL TROF ALONG 85W SHIFTING WNW ATTM...AND LIKELY TO BE NUDGED INTO YUCATAN TONIGHT AS LLVL WIND SURGE MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB BEGIN TO INFRINGE UPON SYSTEM...WHILE FILLING TUTT LOW OVER YUCATAN WEAKENS FURTHER AND LIFT OUT TO N. TWO OR MORE MID LVL VORTS ARE EVIDENT IN STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING OCCURRING IN CNVTN TO E AND NE OF TROF AXIS AND WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS NW CARIB...W CUBA AND INTO SE GULF...AND YIELD VERY ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING. SELY FLOW 15-25 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS ZONE AND GENERALLY REMOVED TO THE E AND NE OF TROF AXIS...AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT ACROSS SE ENTRANCE TO YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE THIS EVENING. FRESH ELY TRADES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AS WIND SURGE EXITS INTO SW AND W CENTRAL PORTIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADES TO RETURN THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS LOW LIFTS OUT OF REGION. MODELS INDICATING WEAK AND BENIGN MONSOONAL LOW DEVELOP ACROSS SW CARIB BY FRI AND WILL DISPLACE STRONGEST WINDS AND SEA A BIT TO THE N...AND N OF 13N THROUGH WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: UKMET-GEFS MEAN BLEND LATEST NHC FORECASTS FOR JERRY CONTINUE TO BE BEST ALIGNED WITH UKMET POSITIONS...AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO NUDGE FORECAST ACROSS NE AND E PORTIONS IN LINE WITH UKMET...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AVBL FOR GRID PUBLISHING BEYOND 48 HRS. SE WND SURGE AND SQUALLY WEATHER SHIFTING NW ACROSS NW CARIB AND NW CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL NEXT 12-18 HR...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE E TO SE WIND FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA TO AROUND 15 KT WITH AREAS 15-20 KT. OTHERWISE...WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 28N EXTENDING W TO 72W...WITH WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 31N74W AND BENIGN FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW ACROSS NW PORTIONS YIELDING LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS N OF 28N ACROSS FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW TO FILL AND DRIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BE SHUNTED BACK TO THE W NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS NW PORTIONS. TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC EXPECTED TO BECOME PULLED AND STRETCHED TO THE NW AS THEY APPROACH UPPER TROFFING BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...WITH MUCH OF WAVE ENERGY MERGING INTO LLVL REFLECTION OF THIS TROFFING AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WWD. WAVES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SLOW WWD MOTION AND TILT AS THEY ENCOUNTER SE STEERING FLOW. LITTLE IMPACT THUS EXPECTED BY THESE WAVES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE RELATED MOISTURE CONVERGING ACROSS N PORTIONS THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.