000
AGXX40 KNHC 011859
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO PSBL TRPCL CYCLONE ENTERING BASIN LATE WED.

LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS BASIN AS HIGH
PRES CENTER OVER ERN SEABOARD EXTEND S INTO GULF. GENTLE TO LIGHT
BREEZE WITH SEAS UNDER 3 FT OVER ENTIRE BASIN THRU LATE WED. BIG
QUESTION REGARDS INTEGRITY OF LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB...PSBL TRPCL
CYCLONE...EMBEDDED IN N-S TROUGH ALONG 83W IN NW CARIBBEAN. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK SYSTEM NW ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
CENTRAL GULF THEN DIVERGE AFTER 48 HRS. MOST DYNAMIC MODELS BRING
IT ONSHORE BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...OTHERS TURN IT MORE EAST.
FORECAST TAKE MIDDLE OF ROAD APPROACH BETWEEN AGGRESSIVE GFS AND
MORE MODERATE OFFICIAL. REGARDLESS OF EXIT POINT PLENTY OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN GULF
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB EMBEDDED IN TROUGH ALONG 83W S OF CUBA
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA OUT OF BASIN WED.
THEREAFTER...ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED AT 1020 MB HIGH PRES MAINTAINS
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN THROUGH
FRI. TRADES SPREAD FRESH BREEZE WESTWARD ONCE LOW PRES MOVES OUT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

LATEST FORECAST FOR JERRY DO NOT SEEM TO AFFECT CONDITIONS W OF
55W AS HIGH PRES MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER BASIN BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE SW N ATLC. VERY WEAK
TROUGHS N OF 28N INCREASE MOISTURE AND SCT CONVECTION BUT VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN GENERAL WIND PATTERN. HIGH PRES TO PREVAIL
ACROSS AREA WITH MODERATE TRADES AND 3-4 FT SEAS...LESS THAN 2 FT
W OF BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.