000 AGXX40 KNHC 010808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 408 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GEFS MEAN REMNANTS OF LLVL VORT CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY W ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS N OF YUCATAN THIS MORNING...WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS ERN SEABOARD OF U.S. WINDS THUS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. BIG QUESTION HAS FEW DAYS IS WHAT WILL LIFT OUT OF NW CARIB AND INTO GULF NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS HAS OFFERED INCONSISTENT SOLUTIONS WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN INSISTENT THAT SHARP TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS YUCATAN AND WK LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW GULF FRI THEN MOVE NNE INTO LA COAST AND BE EJECTED OUT TO NE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GEFS AND ECENS MEANS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AND SIMILAR TO UKMET IN SHIFTING SHARP TROUGH INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL WED MORNING THEN SHIFT IT MORE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO SRN GULF BY THU MORNING. GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A VORT LOBE LIFTING OUT ON E SIDE OF TROUGH AND INTO CENTRAL OR E CENTRAL GULF THU-FRI...AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STLT IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING A VORT CENTER E OF TROUGHING IN W CARIB BEGINNING TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. ANY LOW OR STRAIT LINE SE WINDS TO EMERGE FROM THIS TO OCCUR TO E OF TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS NW AND ACROSS NW CUBA AND STRAITS OF FL WED NIGHT AND INTO SE GULF EARLY THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEAS 6-8 FT SHIFTING NW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAS ATTEMPTED TO BLEND GFS-ECMWF FOR REASONABLE GRIDDED FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND TUTT LOW HAS PINCHED OFF ACROSS NW CARIB AND AIDING IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE E AND ACROSS W CARIB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT PASSES DEPICT A N TO S TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 82W IN W CARIB WITH WEAK LOW OFF COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRAIGHT LINE SLY WINDS 25-30 KT DEPICTED ON E SIDE OF TROUGH NEAR CONVECTION WERE USED AS INTENSITY FOR LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE ON THIS SYSTEM...AND FEEL THIS MAY INFLUENCE TRACK TOO FAR NW. ALTHOUGH GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT...THE THEME OF LOW DEVELOPING ON E SIDE OF TROUGH AND SHIFTING NW ACROSS WRN CUBA OR YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH MAX WINDS 20-25 KT YIELDING SEAS 6-8 NW ZONES. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE MOVING ACROSS VENEZUELA AND SRN CARIB ATTM AND FRESHENING WINDS S OF 14N WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY BUILDING TO 7-8 FT ATTM. THIS WILL SPREAD FRESH TRADES WWD TO 80W NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY ALSO FUEL LLVL CONVERGENCE ON E SIDE OF TROUGH...AS WELL AS ACCELERATE WWD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN. HIGH PRES TO SHIFT E OFF OF MID ATLC COAST THU THROUGH WEEKEND TO BRING RETURN TO MODERATE ELY TRADES ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET BLEND THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GEFS MEAN GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC AND SW N ATLC...HOWEVER LATEST FORECAST FOR JERRY MUCH BETTER IN LINE WITH UKMET POSITION...AND HAVE TRIED TO BLEND IN UKMET ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...WITH MODEST RESULTS. REMNANTS OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES THAT ENTERED ERN CARIB PAST FEW DAYS HAVE RIDDEN THE SELY FLOW TO THE E OF THE W CARIB TROUGH AND RUNNING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND SE HALF OF BAHAMAS THIS MORNING YIELDING SCT CONVECTION AND MODERATE SELY TRADES. THIS SCENARIO TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AND SPREAD WNW INTO STRAITS OF FL AND EXTREME S FL...WITH SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. WEAK HIGH PRES TO PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF AREA AND TO THE W OF JERRY...TO PRODUCE MODERATE ELY TRADES ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS. JERRY HAS UNDERGONE A STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION PAST 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW TO ITS NW HAS MERGED WITH DEEP LAYERED CIRCULATION OF JERRY...AND AN ANOMALOUS EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT OVERNIGHT. ANTICYCLONIC LOOP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SWELL GENERATION TO BE PUSHED BACK TOWARD NE CARIB AND SE WATERS...BUT GFS SUGGESTS BEST PRES GRADIENT ON E AND SIDE OF JERRY AND NOT AIMED AT AREA WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.