000
AGXX40 KNHC 300755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED S OF 20N AND INTO YUCATAN
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH WEAK LLVL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SE GULF NEAR
24.5N84W YDA AND HAS WEAKENED AND NOW DRIFTING WSW. WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR
LESS...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN ESE FLOW 15-20 KT BLOWING INTO SE LA
COAST...WHERE SEAS COULD BE 4 FT. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL PATTERN
EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH BIG QUESTION BEING WHAT WILL LIFT
OUT OF NW CARIB THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING PAST FEW DAYS.
AFTER SEVERAL RUNS PAST FEW DAYS OF GFS ORGANIZING A TC AS SW
CARIB LOW LIFTED OUT OF CARIB AND INTO SE GULF...GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD RECENT EURO SOLUTIONS...AND LIFTS A WEAKER VORT MORE TOWARD
THE NW AND INTO CENTRAL GULF THU...THEN INTO NW GULF BY LATE FRI
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT THEN SHUNTING THIS FEATURE EWD SAT-
SUN. HAVE THUS FOLLOWED LATEST GFS WHICH IS RELATIVELY IN LINE
WITH ECMWF. A SECONDARY LLVL VORT LOBE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS
TO LIFT OUT ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND TUE THEN SHIFT MORE WNW ACROSS
STRAITS WED AND INTO SE GULF WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH
TROFFING ASSOCIATED WITH SW CARIB LOW. SE LLVL WIND SURGE 15-20 KT
WITH SQUALLS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ACROSS BAHAMAS BANK
AND THROUGH STRAITS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND

DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM WRN ATLC SSW ACROSS ERN CUBA
THEN SW TO DEVELOPING LOW SW OF CAYMANS THEN TUTT TO BELIZE.
BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE E CONTINUES TO INDUCE BROAD ZONE OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE E OF TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CARIB NNE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. REMNANTS OF QUICKLY WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NW
INTO HISPANIOLA AND WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROFFING DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB ALONG ABOUT 79W. WEAK
RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AIDED BY BROAD
LOW LAT WIND SURGE REACHING THE WINDWARDS ATTM IS ACTING TO
FRESHEN ESE TO SE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND
ERN CARIB THIS MORNING...AND WILL SHIFT WNW NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS
ACROSS SRN CORRIDOR OF SE CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BUILD 6-8
FT DURING THIS TIME. THIS WIND SURGE APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH VERY WEAK TURNING...AND WILL HELP TO
PUSH TROFFING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB WWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
YUCATAN WED-THU AS IT REACHES SW CARIB. THIS SURGE WILL ALSO
FRESHEN TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS TUE AND WED AND SPREAD NW
INTO NW CARIB AND YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD
5-7 FT POSSIBLY TO 8 FT AS THIS WIND SURGE MOVES S OF JAMAICA AND
TOWARDS YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN

OCCLUDED LOW HAS LIFTED OUT OF REGION WITH OLD CONVERGENCE LINE
LINGERING ACROSS NE PORTIONS...AND LIFT FROM JET ENERGY ON E SIDE
OF W ATLC TROUGH INDUCING SCATTERED DEEP CNVTN E OF BOUNDARY.
SMALL ZONE OF SW WINDS 20-25 KT PREVAILS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM E OF
BOUNDARY N OF 26N ATTM AND WILL SHIFT NNE AND OUT OF AREA BY THIS
EVENING. MODERATE PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND
INTO FLORIDA COAST AND IS FADING WITH BUOYS AT 4-5 FT AS FAR S AS
FT PIERCE. T.D. ELEVEN REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS
WITH HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE...AND FORECAST TO MAKE AN ANTICYLONIC
LOOP NEXT FEW DAYS THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY THE WEEKEND...GIVING
IT SUFFICIENT TIME TO GENERATE WEAK NE SWELL TO AFFECT SE PORTIONS
AND NE CARIB ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...NARROW RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS N
HALF OF AREA WITH MODERATE E TO ESE TRADES PREVAILING S OF 24N.
TRADES EXPECTED TO FRESHEN S OF 23N WED AND THU AND WIND SURGE
MOVES THROUGH CARIB AND E COAST RIDGE EXPANDS E INTO W ATLC. LOOK
FOR SQUALLY WEATHER TONIGHT AND TUE BAHAMAS BANKS WNW THROUGH
STRAITS AS LLVL VORT SHIFTS NW ACROSS CUBA AND INTO SE GULF.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.