000
AGXX40 KNHC 281814
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH OFF E COAST PRODUCING NLY FLOW ALOFT 
ACROSS NE GULF. ENE FLOW WEAKENING IN BIG BEND REGION. NARROW 
RIDGE TO EXTEND FROM ERN SEABOARD SW INTO NE AND N CENTRAL 
PORTIONS THROUGH MON AS LOW ACROSS SW N ATLC LIFTS N...AND 
PRODUCES LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN WITH 
SLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPING MON NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY INTO E TEXAS. LATER IN THE WEEK 
THE GFS IS LIFTING A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OUT OF W CARIB 
AND INTO SE GULF THEN RECURVING INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS A 
STORM FRI. ECMWF SOLUTION CONSIDERABLY MORE BELIEVABLE WITH THE 
MONSOONAL LOW IN SW CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING LOW AND ASSOCIATED N-S 
TROUGH NW ACROSS YUCATAN WED-THU AND INTO W CENTRAL GULF. ECMWF 
SCENARIO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD MONSOON CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXPECTED 
TO FORM BY TONIGHT ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN. LOW TO INCREASE MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF CIRCULATION 
AND SHIFT NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND NW PORTIONS OF CARIB TUE THROUGH 
WED. USING THE MORE REALISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION. UPPER CONVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND LONGITUDINAL STRETCHING OF TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 55W 
AND 65W WILL WORK AGAINST MUCH WESTWARD MOVEMENT NEXT 12-24 
HOURS AND LEAD TO THEIR DEMISE BY SUN EVENING. ATLC RIDGE WILL 
ATTEMPT TO BUILD WWD TO NEAR 70W THROUGH MON...WHILE EQUATORIAL 
WIND MAX AT LOW-MID LEVELS MOVES ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N 
ATLC WATERS INTO SE CARIB AND ENHANCES TRADES S OF 15N TO 20 KT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF. GOOD CONFIDENCE.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW NEAR 29N70W IS ACCELERATING NE 
WHILE SURFACE LOW IS DRIFTING E-NE AND WEAKENING. SCATTEROMETER 
PASS AT 1410 UTC SHOWED WINDS DOWN TO 20 KT NEAR THE CENTER. 
FRESH N TO NE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT W OF LOW TO THE FLORIDA 
COAST N OF 27N TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MON. GLOBAL MODELS 
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND LIFT LOW NE THEN N INTO NW ATLC. 
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS INTO CUBA WILL 
MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MON THEN DISSIPATE. ECMWF 
PREFERRED MODEL GUIDANCE IN GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN...SO 
USED IT EXCLUSIVELY TO POPULATE GRIDS FOR WINDS AND SEAS IN SW N 
ATLC AS WELL. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.