000 AGXX40 KNHC 280811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 411 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKES FROM NE COAST OF CUBA W-NW THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEAR 24N90W WHERE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. SUFFICIENT LLVL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS ALONG BOUNDARY TO INITIATE SCT CONVECTION...WITH BROAD SCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALLOWING FOR ISOLD TSTMS. DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH OFF E COAST PRODUCING NLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NE GULF AND WILL NUDGE BOUNDARY FARTHER S AND SW NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT WASHES OUT SUN MORNING ALONG N COAST OF YUCATAN AND ACROSS CUBA. NE FLOW CURRENTLY EXITING BIG BEND REGION YIELDING 15-20 KT N OF 28N PER RECENT OBS AND ASCAT PASS WITH SEAS THERE 4 FT. WEAK NARROW RIDGING TO EXTEND FROM ERN SEABOARD SW INTO NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH MON AS LOW ACROSS SW N ATLC LIFTS N...AND PRODUCES LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPING MON NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY INTO E TEXAS. LATTER IN THE WEEK..THE GFS IS LIFTING A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OUT OF W CARIB AND INTO SE GULF THEN RECURVING INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS A STORM FRI. AM PREFERRING ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS MONSOONAL LOW IN SW CARIB...AND GENERALLY SHIFTING LOW AND ASSOCIATED N TO S TROUGHING MORE NW AND ACROSS YUCATAN WED-THU AND INTO CENTRAL GULF. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE AT BEST...BUT THIS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. STRING OF LOWS ACROSS W AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO BLOCK ATLC RIDGE FROM THE THE CARIB...AND ARE AIDING IN MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...AND WITH APPROACH OF OCT...A BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION LIKELY ACROSS SW PORTIONS AS FORECAST BY MODELS. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED E TO SE FLOW 15-20 KT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS BETWEEN 68W AND 72W AND S OF 14.5N WITH SEAS THERE 5-7 FT. WEAK AND FADING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WNW ACROSS E CARIB...WITH SECOND WAVE ALONG ABOUT 56W AND MOVING W ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. UPPER CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRETCHING OF THESE WAVES WORKING AGAINST MUCH ASSOCIATED WEATHER N OF 13N. WAVE WILL CONTINUE WNW AND ACROSS E AND NE CARIB NEXT 48 HOURS BUT LITTLE WEATHER EXPECTED AS MID TROP EXPECTED DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE. ATLC LOWS TO LIFT OUT OF REGION SUN AND ALLOW E CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD WWD TO NEAR 70W THROUGH MON...WHILE AN EQUATORIAL WIND MAX AND LOW TO MID LEVELS MOVES ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND SE CARIB AND WILL ENHANCE TRADES S OF 15N TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-7 FT. DEVELOPING MONSOONAL LOW ACROSS SW CARIB TO PRODUCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF CIRCULATION AND SHIFT NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND NW PORTIONS OF CARIB TUE THROUGH WED. PREFER A MORE WWD POSITION OF THIS LOW AND TROFFING EXTENDING TO THE N...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HRS THEN ECMWF BLEND TOWARDS GEFS/ECENS CONSENSUS. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING LOW NEAR 28.5N71.5W AND SHIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STATIONARY FROM NE QUAD OF LOW EWD ALONG ABOUT 28.5W. ELY FLOW 20-30 KT DEPICTED N OF BOUNDARY WHERE SEAS LIKELY TO 10 FT. NELY FLOW 20-25 EXTENDING FROM LOW TO E COAST OF U.S. HAS BUILT SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND 6-9 FT FARTHER NW. GLOBAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFT LOW OUT NE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN N INTO NW ATLC BEYOND MON. HAVE TRENDED BEYOND 24 HOURS TOWARD THE ECMWF AS THIS SOLUTION CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO DRIFT SE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MEANDER NW NEXT FEW DAYS AS E ATLC RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WWD. EXPECT NELY WIND SWELL AT 7-8 SECS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SW ACROSS WATERS W OF 70W THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO ABATE SLIGHTLY SUN AND MON. SECONDARY PULSE OF NE SWELL TO FILL IN ACROSS REGION TUE FROM LOW LIFTING N INTO NW ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.