000 AGXX40 KNHC 271806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GOOD CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS ACROSS THE SE GULF WILL REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN DRIFT INTO NW CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SAT WILL FRESHEN NE WINDS IN THE NE GULF THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUN THROUGH TUE. CURRENT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DRY AIR TO SPREAD SW ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN TODAY. PAIR OF LOWS MOVING ACROSS SW N ATLC AND WEST-CENTRAL ATLC HAS DISPLACED ATLC RIDGE FARTHER TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR 24N39W. VERY WEAK GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS REGION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 60W. ATLC RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN BUILD W INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN AND MON AS LOW PRES CURRENTLY ACROSS SW N ATLC LIFTS NE. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MONSOON LOW BEGINS TO EMERGE ACROSS SW CARIB NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD WEAKLY WWD TO AROUND 60W AND INDUCE GRADIENT E OF THE LOW FOR 15- 20 KT TRADES TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH SAT NIGHT. RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER W WITH AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CREEPING TOWARD JAMAICA AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT IN N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND BEGIN TO HEAD NW AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE...STRETCHING AND SHEARING MOISTURE TO THE NE. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN W ATLC EXPECTED TO COME INTO PHASE WITH LOW IN SW CARIB SUN AND MON...INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN N CENTRAL CARIB ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI AND WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GEFS/ECMWF BLEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW SWEEPING ACROSS N PORTION OF AREA...WITH LOW NEAR 29N75W PUSHING FRONTAL TROUGH SWD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO NW CUBA THEN MEANDER NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST OCCLUDED LOW WITH NE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS NW QUAD AS IT SHIFT E NEXT 24 HOURS THEN LIFTS OUT NE QUICKLY AFTER 48 HOURS. NELY FLOW NW OF OCCLUDING LOW TO SPREAD ACROSS FL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN AND BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT WITH ENOUGH NLY COMPONENT TO ALLOW SOME WAVE ENERGY TO GET IN BEHIND BAHAMAS INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.