000
AGXX40 KNHC 260753
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
353 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS NE GULF WATERS FROM 30N85W TO
29N90W TO 26N93W WITH TWO EMBEDDED LOW PRES CENTERS MOVING E-NE
ALONG BOUNDARY INTO N FLORIDA TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED
DOWN SOUTH BY DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER SW N ATLC TO REACH FROM
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N89W. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS OVER MID ATLC
SEABOARD AND EXTEND DEEP INTO GULF WATERS WITH FRESH NE BREEZE N
OF FRONT AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE OVER REMAINING BASIN
THROUGH SUN WHEN FRONT DISSIPATES OVER GULF.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TRADES WITH 6-7 FT SEAS ACROSS S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AS
CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE RETREATS E FORCED BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
SW N ATLC. CURRENT MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE IN BASIN AND TROPICAL
N ATLC DIMINISH TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE BY EARLY FRI THROUGH MON.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 60W BRING
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND FIELD EXCEPT A MINOR CHANGE OF
DIRECTION AS IT CROSSES INTO AND THROUGH CARIBBEAN BASIN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TRACKING LOW PRES CENTERS.

COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 31N71W THEN
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY TO SECOND LOW PRES CENTER AT 30N77W THEN
CONTINUE W ACROSS EXTREME N FLORIDA INTO GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRES 
MOVE E-NE S OF BERMUDA TODAY DRAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE ACROSS
ATLC WATERS N OF 27N. STRONG TO NEAR GALE SW FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRES AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 10-11 FT THU WITH
CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 55W LATE FRI. SECOND LOW PRES EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY 30N76W THU AND MOVE SE TO 29N74W LATE FRI NIGHT THEN
LIFT NE WITH COLD FRONT RACING SE ACROSS BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA LATE
THU NIGHT REACHING CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT
OR SAT BEFORE STALLING.

STRONG NE BREEZE SEAS TO 8 FT BEHIND COLD FRONT W OF 75W EXTEND
AS FAR S AS 28N WITH MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS W OF FRONT S
OF 28N. FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE SUN W OF 74W WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
TO A LIGHT NE BREEZE AND SEAS 3-4 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
COMPLEX LOW-FRONTAL MOVES ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.