000 AGXX40 KNHC 251731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 131 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A STATIONARY FRONT WIGGLES FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NE COASTAL PLAINS/WATERS WITH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THEN CONTINUING SW THROUGH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N92W... WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 24N96W. THE EASTERN SURFACE LOW...OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WILL LIFT FURTHER N OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BRIEFLY TRANSFORMS TO A WARM FRONT ALSO LIFTING N OF THE AREA. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NW WATERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE TROUGH AND FILLING COMPLETELY BY LATE TONIGHT. DEEPENING ATLC LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG THE FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR NE COASTAL PLAINS BACK SE AGAIN AS A TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT ON THU...WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF WATERS PERHAPS ALSO TRANSFORMING TO A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON THU NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON FRI NIGHT. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 24N TO NEAR 90W TODAY...WILL BUILD NW TO THE TX COAST WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED REMAINING NE OF THE RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON FRI-SAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-ORIENTED FROM SE LA TO W CUBA AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. FRESH TRADES WITH MAX SEAS OF 7 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN MODERATE TRADES WITH MAX SEAS OF 5 FT ON SUN-TUE. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXPECT FOR FRESH TRADES BRIEFLY SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W ON SAT...THEN DRIFT NW THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 28N68W...THEN BECOMES QUASI- STATIONARY TO A LOW PRES CENTER AT 31N77W...WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING W ACROSS EXTREME N FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE PASSING TO THE S OF BERMUDA ON THU WHILE DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 27N. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...ON THU WITH THESE CONDITION SHIFTING E OF 55W ON FRI EVENING. A SECOND LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 30N76W ON THU. THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR 29N74W ON FRI NIGHT AND DEEPEN...THEN LIFT NE WHILE DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS W SOUTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU NIGHT...REACHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. A SECONDARY RE-ENFORCING SURGE WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI W OF THE SECOND LOW...INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT. THIS SECONDARY SURGE WILL MERGE WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N71W TO N- CENTRAL CUBA ON SUN...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING OUT THROUGH TUE. FURTHER S...THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 23-24N WILL RETRACT E OF 75W ON FRI AS THE FIRST WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING E OF 75W THROUGH SUN...THEN BUILDING W-NW TO THE FL STRAITS ON MON-NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.