000
AGXX40 KNHC 240747
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN
CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BROAD BUT WELL DEFINED LOW PRES CENTER 1004 MB REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER NW GULF NEAR 27N95W TODAY THEN WEAKENS AND 
ELONGATES NE AS IT DRIFTS E-NE THROUGH LATE WED...MOVING INLAND
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA THU. LOW STILL ABLE TO PROMPT FRESH BREEZE
AND 6-7 FT SEAS WITHIN 30-45 NM OF CENTER AS OF 06Z...BUT WITH NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOW PRES IS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ANY WINDS OF
CONSEQUENCE TODAY BARELY MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WITH
2-3 FT SEAS W OF 87W AND MODERATE S-SW BREEZE WITH 4-5 FT SEAS E
OF 87W THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER GULF FRI AND SAT DIMINISHING WINDS TO A
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN WITH SEAS BELOW 3 FT
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MOST GUIDANCE AGREE.

FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN WITH
SEAS 6-8 FT WHILE MODERATE E-SE FLOW REMAINS ON EITHER SIDE AND
IN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER E CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
W AT LOWER LATITUDES BY THU FORCED BY CHAIN OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
BETWEEN 28N-31N. RIDGE EFFECTIVELY FLATTENS PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
BASIN THROUGH SUN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE E-SE
BREEZE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 2-3
FT ELSEWHERE IN BASIN. 

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO MOVE NW
ACROSS N PORTIONS EARLY WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU
WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT IN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GEFS MEAN THROUGH WED THEN LEAN TOWARDS UKMET
WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...ALL WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY.

SERIES OF LOW PRES CENTERS FORM ALONG ONDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN NORTHERN LATITUDES BETWEEN 28N-31N AND MOVE E-NE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AGAINST CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS W ALONG
22N-23N. SW-W WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON SE QUADRANT OF 1006 MB
LOW PRES CENTER WHICH FORMS TONIGHT OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA E COAST
AND RACES E-NE THROUGH BASIN WED...THU AND FRI. STRONG SW WINDS
MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS 10-11 FT BY FRI OR SAT.
 
WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE FROM W TO E AS LOW PRES CENTER
MOVES OFF BASIN...JUST TO HAVE ANOTHER ONE FORM OFF FLORIDA AND
START THE TREND AGAIN BUT THIS TIME WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY IN TIMING...INTENSITY AND
TRACK OF LOWS AND IS THE REASON FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.