000
AGXX40 KNHC 221852
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN MODEL CONSENSUS

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKES FROM JUST W OF APALACHICOLA WSW ACROSS
MOUTH OF MS TO LOW NEAR 26N94.3W THEN S-SW TO MEXICAN COAST NEAR
19N96W. RECENT SCAT PASSES STILL SHOWING NELY WINDS 20-25 TO N OF
FRONT OFF LA COAST AND NW FLOW W OF FRONT OFF TX AND MEX
COASTS...WITH SEAS STILL 7-9 FT PER BUOY OBS. LOW HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO OPEN UP AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS SPINNING DOWN
AND BROADENING PROCESS NEXT FEW DAYS PER GLOBAL MODELS...WHILE
FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS N GULF AND W PORTION WASHES OUT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SLY FLOW ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN THROUGH LATE TUE. BEYOND
THIS TIME...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ATTM
ON TIMING NOR PLACEMENT OF EJECTING LLVL ENERGY TO THE NE AND INTO
SW N ATLC.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

FRESH TRADES CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 70W WITH SEAS 5-7 FT...WHILE FLOW CONTINUES
TO OPEN UP ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND INTO ERN GULF...WHERE BUOY 42056
HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 20 KT ALL DAY. HIGH PRES CENTERED
ACROSS E ATLC TO BUILD WEAKLY WWD ALONG 24N TONIGHT THROUGH WED
TO BRING A RETURN TO FRESH FLOW ACROSS BROADER PORTION OF CENTRAL
CARIB...AND NOCTURNAL MAX OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA APPROACHING 30 KT
EACH NIGHT...AND SEAS THEN 8-10 FT. SELY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NW PORTIONS THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH AND ELY FLOW BEGINS TO
DOMINATE THERE. TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS TO GENERALLY SHIFT NW AND PASS ACROSS N
PORTIONS WITH NO VERY ACTIVE WAVES EXPECTED BEFORE THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

UPP TROUGH ACROSS N PORTIONS ALONG 65W SHIFTING E AND SHARPENING
AND KICKING OUT LOW LINGERING ACROSS NE PORTIONS...WITH 20-25 KT
FLOW ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE TO LIFT OUT SOON. LLVL TROUGH EXTENDING
SW FROM JUST E OF THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVERGENCE
AND CNVTN THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE IT TOO BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT TO
NE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE U.S. TO SINK SSE INTO FAR NW
PORTIONS 24-36 HRS AND MEANDER THROUGH 48 HR...BUT FORECAST IS
UNCLEAR DAY 3-5 AS TIMING OF ENERGY BEING KICKED NE OUT OF GULF
AND RIDES ALONG LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANDLED DIFFERENT BY
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS FASTER AND DIGGS FARTHER SE AND THUS HAS
EARLIERCYCLOGENISIS THAN EURO MODELS...WHICH DELAY DEEPENING LOW
IN TIME. N TO NELY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO NW OF FRONT AND
LOW MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT STILL DEPENDS ON LOCATION AND MOVEMENT
OF LOW. AT PRESENT HAVE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS WHICH WERE
STRONGLY GFS WEIGHTED...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ATTM.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.