000
AGXX40 KNHC 220804
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES CENTER OVER NW GULF MERGED WITH COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION NO LONGER EXPECTED. COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO LOW PRES AT 26N95W TO COAST OF MEXICO AT 19N96W.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. FRESH SW WINDS WITH SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT AHEAD OF FRONT MAINLY
N OF 25N W OF 90W AND STRONG NE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT N AND W OF
FRONT. FRONT REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N95W THEN ALONG 95W
TO BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. MODERATE TRADES
DOMINATE REMAINDER OF BASIN. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA STRENGTHENS AND INCREASE TRADES
TO STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE MODERATE TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH PERIOD.

SURFACE TROUGH E OF LESSER ANTILLES EXTEND FROM 22N55W TO 13N56W
MOVE W ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY.
MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES AT 30N62W 1006 MB TRAILS WEAK TROUGH SW TO SE BAHAMAS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 6-8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE 
FEATURES. LOW TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT MON DRAGGING TROUGH E OF
AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SECOND LOW PRES 1009 MB AT
26N74W TO NW BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WEAKEN AHEAD OF A THIRD LOW PRES
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF SE CONUS TONIGHT. THIRD LOW PRES ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS NW PORTION OF FORECAST REGION LATE MON
THEN STALL FROM 29N65W ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO SE FLORIDA TUE. FRESH
SW TO W WINDS ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 TONIGHT AND MON ASSOCIATED WITH
THIRD LOW PRES. BY LATE MON...MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS
N OF 27N WHILE RIDGE EXTEND ACROSS WATERS S OF 27N. W PORTION OF
FRONT MOVE N ACROSS NW WATERS LATE TUE WITH NEXT LOW PRES 
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT NEAR 29N78W LATE WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.