000
AGXX40 KNHC 211822
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
222 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF HAS MERGED WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT
1800 UTC...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS RELATED TO
THE FRONT AND EXTENDS SW INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N
OF 25N AND W OF 90W. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26N95W THEN ALONG 95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN
MORNING FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. THEN...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY
ACROSS THE N AND W WATERS MON. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE AND WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY IS ALSO
SEEN. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
STRONG TRADES BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WED...WHILE MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE IS NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND EXTENDS FROM 21N54W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N56W.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH
SUN ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUN THEN MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MON WHILE WEAKENING. BUOYS 41040 AND
41300 ON EITHER SIDE OF THE THROUGH AXIS ARE SHOWING MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A LOW PRES E OF THE AREA NEAR 29N62W TRAILS A BROAD TROUGH SW TO
THE SE BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE LATEST NHC WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES
THIS LOW PRES AREA A LOW CHANGE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT IN
ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE N OF THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST WATERS BY SUN MORNING AND DRAG THE TROUGH E OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 26N74W TO THE
NW BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN ON SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRES
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS SUN NIGHT. THIS THIRD LOW PRES
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION LATE ON MON...THEN STALL FROM
29N65W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO SE FLORIDA ON TUE. EXPECT MAINLY
FRESH SW TO W WINDS ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 LATE SUN INTO MON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE THIRD LOW PRES. BY LATE MON...MODERATE TO
FRESH SW TO W WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 27N
WHILE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N. THE W
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N78W
BY WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.