000
AGXX40 KNHC 191717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
117 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

1004 MB LOW PRES IS IN THE SW GULF WATERS NEAR 20.5N94W EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 75
NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND ALSO FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND
94W...ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT
RANGE.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A W-NW MOTION THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO...THEN SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NW TOWARD THE NE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF
HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY WITH IT NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
GULF SAT INSTEAD OF FRI. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN WILL EITHER MERGE WITH
THE FRONT OR DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUN. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM E TO W...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS
ALSO DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS THINKING WHICH HAD THE FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. NEEDLESS TO SAY UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS LOW
PRES AND AN ATTENDANT TROUGH NW OF THE CARIBBEAN IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO
6-8 FT. MEANWHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH 3-5 FT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE/SUBSIDE AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA. OTHERWISE...BROAD TROUGHING N OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE AREA LIFTS OUT AND HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ALONG WITH
4-5 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO SOLID
MODERATE LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM
28N TO 29N WITH A STRETCHED OUT NE TO SW TROUGH S OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WIND OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO FRESH AND TWO ALTIMETER PASSES ALONG
WITH A BUOY S OF THE AREA NOW SHOW SEAS JUST LESS THAN 8 FT. 
WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE FRONT...S-SW WINDS S OF THE
TROUGH AND NE-E WINDS N OF THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS E
OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGHING TO THE S LINGERS. LOW
PRES IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH FRI INTO SAT.
THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE SAT AND SUN...WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUN AND MON. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW PORTION LATE SUN INTO MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.