000 AGXX40 KNHC 181826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFERENCE. LOW PRES ALONG A TROUGH HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST W OF THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY OVER LAND AND IS POORLY ORGANIZED. REGARDLESS...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE S CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SPREADING WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A LATE MORNING ALTIMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED 7-10 FT SEAS OVER THIS SAME AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WNW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITH FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MODELS DIVERGE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LOW WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE LOW MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD THEN TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OR A PORTION OF THE ENERGY MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WHILE A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF IT. FOR NOW THE LATTER SCENARIO WAS FOLLOWED IN COORDINATION WITH THE HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT AND WPC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN MAINLY THE W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS REMAIN PREVELANT IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT HAS MOVED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 18N W OF 80W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS...AND CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE A BROAD AND WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING. DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN THIS AREA. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N-NE OF THE AREA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS THEY VEER TO THE SE. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL RETURN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE BASIN FROM 30N65W TO 30N70W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING TO THE WSW FROM THERE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE N OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 7-9 FT SEAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT TO THE S-SE WITH THE REMAINING PORTION MANAGING TO ALSO SINK S-SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS...THEN WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY FRI AND SAT. WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS REMNANT TROUGH BY SAT...MOVING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THESE FEATURES SUN AND MON WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE BASIN. BY LATE SUN INTO MON WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NW PORTION E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES. THE FRONT WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS BY LATE MON INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.