000
AGXX40 KNHC 171842
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

WEAK TROUGH ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS W INTO BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND INTENSIFIES FORMING WEAK LOW PRES 1006 MB LATE WED.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT S OF 22N GIVES WAY
TO STRONG E-SE FLOW WITH SEAS 6-8 FT E OF TROUGH AXIS.  MODERATE
TO FRESH E BREEZE WITH SEAS 5-6 FT ACROSS REMAINDER OF GULF N OF
22N. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES IN TURNING LOW PRES NE AND REACH
23N95W LATE FRI WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SPEED SO FORECAST TAKES
MEAN POSTN FOR LOW PRES. NONE OF THE MODEL STIR TROPICAL
ORGANIZATION INTO SYSTEM.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE DUE TO POSTN AND TIMING OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES.

SURFACE RIDGE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TRADES WITH SEAS 6-8 FT 
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEAKENS AS SURFACE TROUGH
BUMPS INTO ITS POSTN. RIDGE FORCED E TURNS EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DIMINISHING WINDS SE WHILE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WINDS SUBSIDE TO A
MODERATE SE BREEZE. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH
HIGHER SEAS DUE TO MODERATE E SWELL CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW PRES FORMING. 

TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS LOW PRES CENTER 1006 MB BY 
FRI THEN IS FORCED NE BY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
WHILE ALL MODELS MOVE LOW PRES CENTER NE...THEY GENERATE THE
CENTER AT DIFFERENT POSITION AND TIMES...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL IN ALL...WINDS IN SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
PRES CENTER INCREASE BUT TOO DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE ADDS TO THE
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.