000
AGXX40 KNHC 151858
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
258 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN IS HURRICANE INGRID AT 22.5N 95.8W
AT 1100 UTC WITH WINDS TO 65 GUSTING TO 80 KT AND PRES OF 990 MB.
INGRID FORECAST TO DRIFT NW TONIGHT THEN TURN W-SW MOVE INLAND
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATE. WINDS AND SEAS OVER WESTERN
GULF DECREASE ALTHOUGH 8-9 FT S SWELL MAY AFFECT NW GULF WATERS
 TUE AND WED.

OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF INGRID...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SE CONUS
RESULT IN MODERATE NE TO E BREEZE WITH SEAS 4-5 S OF 26N AND
GENTLE BREEZE WITH 3-4 FT S OF 26N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS N OF AREA AS SURFACE TROUGH N OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS MOVE NW. FRESH WINDS REMAIN OVER FAR W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING OVER REMAINDER
OF BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS 5-6 FT RANGE OVER FAR
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT
OVER REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN WATERS. TROPICAL ATLC AFFECTED BY
EASY ROLLING 5-7 SE SWELL. 

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS LATE MON AND INCREASES WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU JUST TO WEAKEN AFTER THU AND DIMINISH THE
WINDS AGAIN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS OVER AREA WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SE PART WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 22N AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZE N OF 22N. SEAS 4-5 FT EXCEPT 1-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. 
TROUGH DRIFT ACROSS SE PART AND DISSIPATE BY TUE.

RIDGE WEAKENS ONCE AGAIN BY THU LEAVING FLAT PRES GRADIENT AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE. 
GMZ021...NONE. 
GMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.