000
AGXX40 KNHC 150630
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK IS HURRICANE INGRID WHICH WAS
LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 0300 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 75 KT GUSTING TO 90 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 986 MB. INGRID IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TODAY
AS THE SYSTEM REACHES NEAR 23.0N 96.4W WITH WINDS 85 KT GUSTING TO
105 KT TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO BY EARLY MON.
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS.

OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF INGRID...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E BREEZE WITH SEAS
1-3 OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND 3-5 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
BASIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC
WATERS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5
FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE
PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN
THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON A WNW TRACK THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
STRENGTHEN TRADEWIND FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FAR SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT
RANGE EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
PREVAIL. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE
AREA WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ019...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ025...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.