000
AGXX40 KNHC 141825
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DUE TO POSTN DIFFERENCES.

MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN THROUGH TUE IS TROPICAL STORM
...SOON TO BECOME HURRICANE...INGRID. LOCATED AT 20.6N 94.6W AT
15 UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 60 GUSTING TO 75 KT AND MINIMUM PRES OF
988 MB. INGRID IS MOVING N AND TAKES A SHORT TURN N-NE BEFORE
BACKING NW SUN THEN W BY MON. IT IS EXPECTED ATTAIN HURRICANE
STRENGTH EARLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH LANDFALL EXPECTED 
BY MON IN THE MEXICAN COAST.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SE CONUS RESULT IN GENTLE TO
MODERATE...FRESH TO STRONG FURTHER CLOSER TO INGRID...NE TO E
BREEZE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

WEAK TROUGH JUST N OF LEEWARD ISLANDS DRIFT NE INTO RIDGE OVER SW
N ATLC. TROUGH EASES PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW GENTLE TO
MODERATE E-SE TRADES OVER EASTERN...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. TROUGH DISSIPATES INTO LARGE
RIDGE AND GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN BY MON WITH WINDS BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E BREEZE AND SEAS BUILD TO 8-9 FT.

MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WITH 4-6 FT SEAS OVER
WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY DIMINISH AS INGRID MOVES INLAND IN WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SW
N ATLC WATERS BUILDS THROUGH TUE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND
INCREASING TRADES.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS OVER AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S 
BREEZE ALONG GREATER ANTILLES AND FLORIDA E COAST AND SEAS 4-5 FT
WHILE REMAINDER OF BASIN ENJOYS LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS...OR LESS W OF BAHAMAS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BUMPS INTO SE
CORNER OF BASIN AND DISSIPATES BY LATE SUN.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT.
GMZ019...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT.
GMZ021...NONE. 
GMZ023...HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT.
GMZ025...HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.