000
AGXX40 KNHC 131914
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SINCE OFFICIAL IS FASTER THAN GFS.

MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS RECENTLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM
INGRID AT 19.3N 95.3 W AT 21 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
GUSTING TO 50 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES OF 999 MB.
INGRID MOVES W AT 2 KT. ITS SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SOME INTENSIFICATION AND MAY REACH TO 55 KT BEFORE MOVING INLAND
IN MEXICAN COAST MON NIGHT.

OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF INGRID...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SE CONUS
EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO
E BREEZE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN.   

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ADVECTS ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG 70W. HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS N
OF AREA OVER SW N ATLC WATERS WITH WEAK TROUGH RUNNING JUST N OF
LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER FAR W CARIBBEAN AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF BASIN.
SEAS REMAIN IN 4-5 FT RANGE OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW PRES E OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WEAKEN TO
AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES W-NW THROUGH WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY MON. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SW N ATLC WATERS BUILD THROUGH WEEKEND
AND TIGHTEN GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS TRADES INCREASE
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS OVER AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS S OF 22N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 22N. SEAS 4-6 FT
RANGE OVER SE PART OF AREA AND 3-5 FT OVER REMAINDER OF WATERS
EXCEPT W OF BAHAMAS WITH SEAS IN 1-3 FT RANGE. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DRIFT INTO SE PART OF AREA SAT WHILE HIGH PRES INTENSIFIES
ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. 
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.