000
AGXX40 KNHC 130630
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.0 W AT
0300 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT
AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST AT 2 KT. T.D. TEN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING
TO 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT NEAR 19.4N 94.6W THIS EVENING...45 KT
GUSTING TO 55 KT NEAR 19.8N 94.8W SAT EVENING...50 KT GUSTING TO
60 KT NEAR 21.5N 96.0W SUN EVENING...AND MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO
NEAR 23N 98W ON MON EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC
WATERS WITH DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE 1005 MB CENTERED JUST E OF
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LOW E OF
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND CONTINUE ON
A WNW TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND STRENGTHEN TRADEWIND FLOW
OVER THIS AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER
THE SE PART OF THE AREA...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE SE PART OF THE AREA
WHILE WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.