000
AGXX40 KNHC 121818
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF AND OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF COAST
WILL GIVE WAY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FRI AND SAT. 1005 MB LOW PRES
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CENTERED NEAR 19.5N93W WILL INTENSIFY AND
DRIFT GENERALLY NW TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO THROUGH MON. INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW HAS A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE
AREA. A WEAK LOW IN THE ATLC NEAR 17N53W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
A TROUGH AND DRIFT SLOWLY W...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
60W AND 65W THIS WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES IN S GULF OF MEXICO.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

WEAK PRES PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM W OF BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY S OF 25N SUN AND MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF 30N.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.