000
AGXX40 KNHC 120609
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE

RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BREAK 
DOWN LATER TODAY AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FRI AND SAT. A 1007
MB LOW PRES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL ENTER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SW GULF
IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFY THROUGH SUN AND DRIFT WNW. THE LOW IS
RATED HIGH POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THU...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. WEAK LOW IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 17N52W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
AND DRIFT SLOWLY W BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN 60W AND 65W
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
FRI THROUGH SUN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHERE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES IN S GULF OF MEXICO.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

WEAK PRES PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
30N75W TO 27N80W WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY N OF 30N FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN MORNING THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SAT...THEN WINDS WILL
INCREASE S OF 25N SUN AND MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF 30N.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.