000
AGXX40 KNHC 101840
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF AND OFFICIAL FORECAST 
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE

RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST 
WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH 
THE SW GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TONIGHT. 
LOW PRES AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF WED...THEN 
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH SAT AS IT DRIFTS NW. GFS IS MUCH MORE 
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND MOVES THE LOW FURTHER NORTH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH 
THU. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SW N ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK AND 
MAINTAIN MODERATE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SUN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS BRUSHING PAST THE EXTREME NE PART OF 
THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE N OF 31N THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH 
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NE PORTION OF AMZ115 TONIGHT BASED ON AN 
ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS S-SW OF THE CENTER 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S OF GABRIELLE. GENTLE WINDS 
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.  A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE E WINDS S OF 22N THROUGH 
WED NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AND FRI. 
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.