000
AGXX40 KNHC 071816
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH A DISSIPATING COOL FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES. THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY WED. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND
IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND A TROUGH PREVAILING OVER
THE SW N ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO GENTLE
RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM THE EAST AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW SHIFT NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
FRESHEN THE TRADEWIND FLOW MON THROUGH THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IS JUST NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 23N69W 1010 MB WITH TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LOW AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE
TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW...IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE E OF THE TROUGH...4-5 FT W OF THE
TROUGH...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AS
THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD MON THROUGH WED...THEN START TO DRIFT WESTWARD WED
AND THU.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.