000
AGXX40 KNHC 061913
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
313 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET BLEND THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GFS

SFC LOW ACROSS WRN GULF OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO HAS GAINED BETTER
PRESENTATION IN STLT IMAGERY WITH CNVTV BANDS...AND NHC HAS JUST
ISSUED BULLETIN ON T.D. 8. GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN H85 VORT
ALONG COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE ECMWF MOVES IT INLAND. LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE SUFFICIENTLY INLAND TO HAVE NO CHANCE FOR
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE A RAIN MAKER FOR
MEXICO. EDGE OF RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WIND IN THAT
AREA. WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 45 N
NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE CORE MOVES INLAND. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS N GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. ONLY CAVEAT IS LOW PRES
TO PERSIST ACROSS S PORTIONS OF BASIN AND WILL ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN EVENS MEAN

REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES OFF NE COAST OF DOM REP WITH
FRESHENING SELY FLOW BUILDING ACROSS E CARIB ATTM. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT N NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NNE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN NE AND EXIT THE REGION DAY 3. MEANWHILE
BROAD WEAK LOW PRES TO SHIFT WNW FROM SW CARIB ACROSS W AND NW
PORTIONS TO YIELD SE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN AND SLIGHT SEAS
ACROSS S AND SW PORTIONS. PEAK SEAS WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE OF
A-B-C'S AROUND 6 FT BY DAY 3. MODERATE SELY FLOW ACROSS TROPICAL N
ATLC ATTM WITH HUGE AREA OF SAL APPROACHING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
LARGE WAVE CIRCULATION. THESE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: CONSENSUS OF GEFS-EVENS MEANS

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE N-NE INTO ATLC
TO NEAR 29N64W WITH FRESH SE TO S FLOW E OF TROUGH S OF
26N...WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT. THROUGH TO DRIFT W AND BECOME
MORE N-S ALIGNED NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE WAVE VORTICITY LINGERING N
OF PUERTO RICO WILL MERGE TO SOME DEGREE WITH REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE AND SHIFT N THEN GRADUALLY MORE NE AND ACCELERATE BY DAY
3. SE TO S WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT EXPECTED IN BROAD ZONE TO E OF
WHATEVER LOW EVOLVES OUT OF THIS...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW FOR ALL OF US WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
PRECISE SPEED AND LOCATION OF LOW STILL A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS. STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DRY AND LIKELY SAL MIXING IN ON
E SIDE OF TROUGH ATTM AND WOULD WORK AGAINST ANY SIG SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SHORT TERM. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SINKING S INTO
NW PORTIONS ATTM INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH WLY UPPER FLOW TO THE
S OF SUPPORTING TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCT CNVTN THAT WILL SHIFT S AND
SE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. MODERATE NELY FLOW FORECAST
TO PREVAIL W OF NE CARIB TROUGH AND WILL BACK SOMEWHAT AS TROUGH
AND ANY LOW EVOLVE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN WEAK NE WIND SWELL
DOMINATING AREA WATERS THROUGH MON OR TUE.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.