000 AGXX40 KNHC 051844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS EVOLVED PAST 24-36 HOURS ACROSS SW GULF...DEPICTED AS A TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE AND EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18.5N94W TO 21N95W TO 24N96W. WEAK TUTT AXIS STRETCHED E TO W ACROSS N GULF ALONG ABOUT 26.5N WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INDUCING W TO NW SHEAR ACROSS SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG E SIDE OF TROUGH...AND ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED S OF LLVL W TO E RIDGE. TROUGH FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY WWD AND TO MEXICAN COAST NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. LLVL LOW LOOKS TO BE ATTEMPTING TO FORM NEAR 22.7N 95.4W...WITH BUOY 42055 JUST NOW VEERING TO SE AT 1O KT.SELY FLOW FORCING LARGE BLOB OF CNVTN E OF TROUGH THERE WILL LIKELY ATTEMPT TO WRAP INTO DEVELOPING LOW...WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVING A SHORT PERIOD FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. SELY FLOW 20-25 KT EXPECTED ON E SIDE OF TROUGH AND LOW AS IT SHIFT W AND TO COAST NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BUILD SEAS 6 TO 7 POSSIBLY 8 FT. BEYOND 24 HOURS VERA CRUZ COASTAL TROUGH TO PREVAIL WHILE ELYS PREVAIL ACROSS N PORTIONS OF BASIN THROUGH DAY THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN ECENS MEAN THROUGH DAY 7. LLVL CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT WITH MID LVL CIRCULATION BEING DRAWN NE WITHIN DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING EXTENDING NE INTO ATLC. ALTHOUGH I AM NOT GOING WITH GFS MEAN PLACEMENT OF THIS DEEP LAYERED THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...I LIKE THE WAY IT HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED SHEAR VORTICITY SHIFTING N-NE ALONG E SIDE OF TROUGH. AS LLVL CENTER OF T.D. GABRIELLE MOVES NW INTO E PORTIONS OF DOM REP THIS EVENING...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN MEAN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO MONA PASSAGE...AND INTO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA BY 12Z FRI. FRESH SE FLOW WILL BUILD IN ACROSS E AND NE CARIB BEHIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI TO PRODUCE LARGER WAVE FIELD THAN GABRIELLE DID IN ITS SHORT LIFE CYCLE. TROUGH TO SHIFT SLOWLY WNW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT CARIB THROUGH DAY 3 BEFORE VORT CENTERS ALONG TROUGH IN ATLC LIFT OUT OF REGION AND ALLOW WWD PROGRESSION OF TROUGH REMNANTS ACROSS NW CARIB MON-TUE. AS THIS OCCURS...MONSOONAL MINI GYRE ACROSS SW CARIB FCST TO SHIFT NW...AS AND LIFT NWD ACROSS FAR EPAC AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...PRODUCING SE TO ESE FLOW ACROSS CARIB E OF 80W MON-TUE...AND PEAK SEAS 5-6 FT S OF HISPANIOLA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN ECENS MEAN AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM GABRIELLE REMNANTS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO ATLC NEAR 27N62W...WITH N PORTION OF ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING INTO TOP PORTION OF TROUGH ALONG 59W. THROUGH TO SHIFT GRADUALLY NW THROUGH DAY 3 AND WILL ALLOW OPPORTUNITY FOR ONE OR MORE VORT CENTERS CURRENTLY ALONG TROUGH...TO SPIN UP WITH NEAR GALE FORCE...OR T.S. FORCE WINDS ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. STRONG FORCING...AMPLE MOISTURE AND RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF VORT CENTER TO NE OF GABRIELLE PAST 36 HOURS WHERE A WIND SURGE PERSISTS. EARLY MORNING ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED BROAD AREA OF 9 FT SEAS WITH A MAX READING OF 10.8 FT AT 21.6N64.3W. THIS ESE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WNW AND MAINTAIN SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH 48 HOURS. FRESH SE TO S FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON E SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS W...AS MID LVL VORTS RIDE NNE AND ALONG TROUGH AND OUT OF AREA BY LATE SUN. ACROSS NW PORTIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS DIPPING SE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ATTM AND WILL SWEEP EWD NEXT 48 HRS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND COME SOMEWHAT IN SYNCH WITH DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ANCHORED ON GABRIELLE. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS DOMINATED BY MOD PERIOD ESE SWELL BY WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.