000 AGXX40 KNHC 041908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 308 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING UPPER LOW ACROSS NW GULF TO CARVE LLVL TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 92W THAT WILL SHIFT WWD INTO LOWER TEXAS AND MEXICO NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY AND VERA CRUZ COASTAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS W PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONTAL TROUGH TO SINK INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF GULF COAST STATES AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THU THROUGH SAT AND BE DRAGGED EWD OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO BUILD ACROSS THE N HALF OF BASIN TO THE W OF WHATEVER TROUGHING OR TROPICAL SYSTEM EVOLVES OUT OF CARIB LOW...AND THUS FORECAST SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...FOR BEYOND SAT...MODERATE ELY OR NELY FLOW LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEEKEND...AND BACK SLOWLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GEFS MEAN WAVE ENERGY MELDING WITH BROAD LOW IN NE CARIB TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWING AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS SMALL VORT CENTER NE OF LEEWARDS LAST NIGHT...AND SIMILAR AREA AROUND 25 KT NE OF ANTIGUA TODAY. WITH LOW BIAS OF STRONGER WINDS OF ASCAT WE LIKELY HAD GALES LAST NIGHT...AND ALTIMETER PASSES OUTSIDE THIS AREA SHOWED BROAD AREA OF 9 FT SEAS WELL TO THE W. MEAN TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LOW AND MID LEVELS...ANCHORED ON NE CARIB LOW...AND SHIFT W-NW NEXT 48-72 HOURS. VORT CENTER NE OF CARIB WILL SHIFT WWD ACROSS TOP OF LOW...BUT MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT...AS UKMET IS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING NE VORT...GFS MERGES TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE INTO NE VORT AND DEVELOPS IT INTO TC IN A FEW DAYS OFF TO THE NE...AND ECMWF SHIFTS ENTIRE TROUGHING FARTHER WWD INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE MON BEFORE LIFTING VORTEX OUT TO THE N. AT THIS POINT A CONSENSUS OF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEARS IN ORDER. STRONG WIND FIELD WITH WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 7-10 FT WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS ATLC WATERS OF LEEWARDS AND OFFSHORE OF PR/USVI NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO SHARPEN AND FLOW BEHIND TROUGH TO THEN VEER MORE SE AND CREATE NEW FETCH REGION. SQUALLS AND STRONG CNVTN TO SHIFT GRADUALLY NW NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS LEEWARDS. LOW IN CARIB LOOKS GOOD ON STLT AND WE ARE CLASSIFYING T2.0 ATTM BUT SFC SIGNALS NOT YET AGREEING...AND MAY NOT DEVELOP BEYOND T.D. STATUS NEXT 36 HOURS BECAUSE OF COMPETING SYSTEMS. E TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT TO SHIFT WNW ACROSS NE CARIB AND PR/USVI WATERS AND INTO SE DOM REP BY 36 HOURS WITH LOW EXPECTED TO RIDE NNW ACROSS E PART OF HISPANIOLA BY 48 HRS AND THEN INTO EXTREME SE BAHAMAS BY 72 HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISLANDS OF NE CARIB AND ERN HISPANIOLANEXT 48 HOURS...BUT MAY LUCK OUT AND MISS LARGER SWATH OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE PASSING JUST TO THE N. ELSEWHERE...MILD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL W OF TROUGH...WITH SELY FLOW 15-20 KT BUILDING IN BEHIND TROUGH THU THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH 2 HOURS THEN GEFS MEAN. WEAK RIDGE ACROSS N PORTIONS TO SHIFT NE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS FRONTAL TROUGH SINKS SE INTO NW PORTIONS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING MILD. OTHERWISE...ALL THINGS CONTINGENT ON EVOLUTION OF NE CARIB LOW AND MELDING TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPING DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING EXTENDING NE FROM LOW INTO THE ATLC. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT AT ALL...SEE ABOVE DISCUSSION...AND AM GOING WITH THE GEFS MEAN AFTER 48 HOURS. STRONG WIND FIELD WITH WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 7-10 FT WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS ATLC WATERS OF LEEWARDS AND OFFSHORE OF PR/USVI NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO SHARPEN AND FLOW BEHIND TROUGH TO THEN VEER MORE SE AND CREATE NEW FETCH REGION. SQUALLS AND STRONG CNVTN TO SHIFT GRADUALLY NW NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS LEEWARDS AND INTO SE WATERS FOR THU. STRONG SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP E OF TROUGH AXIS PERSISTING ACROSS E PORTIONS AND MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST 15-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT S OF 27N E OF 68W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO RESPECT THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR VORT NE OF THE NE CARIB TO MERGE INTO TROUGH AND POSSIBLY INVIGORATED FURTHER BY MERGER OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO DEVELOP AREA OF NEAR GALES E OF TROUGH...OR T.C. BY SAT...ACROSS E PORTIONS AND SHIFTING N-NE. WE ONLY HAVE ECMWF AND GFS AVAILABLE FOR WIND GRIDS BEYOND DAY 4 AND THUS DIFFICULT TO CREATE THIS SOLUTION IN WIND GRIDS BUT IS HINTED AT BY DAY 6 ACROSS FAR NE WATERS. DIFFICULT FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.