000 AGXX40 KNHC 040641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE SPLIT BY A VERY WEAK TROUGH THAT SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NEAR THE MS DELTA SW TO NEAR 26N92W THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH IS LIKELY THE REFLECTION OF A MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE INLAND THE TX COAST ON THU NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TODAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY SAT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TODAY...THEN MEANDER THROUGH FRI NIGHT... LIFTING N OF THE AREA LATE SAT. THE RESULT OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WITH SEAS 1-2 FT...ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING E-SE 10 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT S OF 26N...LATE TODAY WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING ONLY E WINDS AT 5-10 KT ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN INVERTED TROUGH ORIENTATED FROM NW TO SE...WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY ACROSS SW WATERS...WITH WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 20N93W. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVED W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE YESTERDAY...BUT WAS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY LOCATE... AND THUS REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO INDUCE WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THESE OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP IN THE SURFACE DATA. THE RESULT IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY NEAR THE TROUGH WHILE THE RIDGE TO N WILL MAINTAIN E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT...PERHAPS MAXING AT 4 FT IN THE FL STRAITS IN 15 KT LATE EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. UPPER FEATURES HAVE BEEN COMPLICATING THE ACCURATE LOCATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W. THIS WAVE SPUN OFF A SURFACE LOW A FEW DAYS AGO WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 15.5N64W AND ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A NW DIRECTION TOWARDS HISPANIOLA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE AND NOW IS ANALYZED FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 55-58W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLY CONVECTION FROM 15-19N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THESE TWO WAVES COMBINE TO CREATE A NE-E-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA E OF 73W...WITH THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 44W SEEMS TO MOVING W AT NEAR 20 KT AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W THU AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ESE AT 15-20 KT E OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT DIMINISHING 15 KT ON FRI NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO FL AT 27N80W. SW 15 KT WINDS/SEAS 3-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF 70W SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ACROSS NE FL ON THU NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY RETRACT E ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH TO DIP INTO THE NW WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. THE TROUGH SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY ON FRI. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF 2 TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N DURING THE PERIOD. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW REACHING THE NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON THU...THEN MOVE SLOWLY NW ACROSS THE FAR SE BAHAMAS EARLY IN WEEKEND...THEN TURN NE ALONG A TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 31N65W TO HISPANIOLA...REACHING NEAR 23N70W ON SUN...THEN NEAR 25N68W ON MON. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF E- SE WINDS AT 20-25 KT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS S OF 24N E OF 65W. AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE S THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL SHIFT NW TO ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 70-58W ON FRI. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE THE GRADIENT E OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SE WINDS AT 20-25 KT ON SAT...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT ON SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.