000 AGXX40 KNHC 031912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS N GULF TODAY WHILE BROAD LOW PRES EXTENDS FROM YUCATAN W ACROSS SW GULF. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THIS AREA PAST 24 HOURS IS BECOMING ABSORBED IN NE PORTION OF EPAC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION...AND IN COMBO WITH PREVALENT COASTAL TROUGH ALONG WRN COAST OF BAY OF CAMPECHE...BROAD TROFFING FCST TO PERSIST ACROSS SW QUARTER OF BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS. ACTIVE CNVTN ALSO EXPECTED AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NW TOWARDS MEXICAN GULF COAST THROUGH THU. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO SINK INTO N GULF COASTAL PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND MAINTAIN NARROW RIDGE ACROSS N PORTIONS. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THUS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF STRAITS OF FL WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GEFS MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE ACROSS SW GULF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER W OF 85W...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND ACROSS YUCATAN NEXT 12 HOURS. MILD ELY TRADES PREVAIL W OF 72W YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...ATTM IS FOCUSED ON STRUNG OUT TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS E CARIB BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH SECOND WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE E...NOW ALONG ABOUT 58W. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE NE-SW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN WAVE ROTATING UP AND OVER TOP OF TROUGH AND REMAINING ACROSS ATLC WATERS. A PAIR OF LLCC ARE ACROSS THE E CARIB NEAR 63W. GFS IS CURRENTLY MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH UKMET SLOWEST...AND ECMWF WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THE W. LIGHT SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THIS REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS WITH MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HURRICANE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GOING THROUGH MONA PASSAGE THEN RECURVING GRADUALLY AT OR BEFORE 70W. AT THIS TIME I AM PREFERRING THE GEFS MEAN...AND TAKING A NE TO SW ALIGNED TROUGH W-NW THROUGH NE CARIB TONIGHT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND MONA PASSAGE WED AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO SE BAHAMAS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AND ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE BY 12Z FRI. BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT NE TO E FLOW WILL SPREAD FRONT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS N THROUGH NE OF LEEWARDS W AND SW INTO EXTREME NE CARIB THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND AID IN ATTEMPT FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION OF DEVELOPING LOW. BASED ON CURRENT STLT IMAGERY I AM BECOMING A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. FRESH WIND FIELD AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL YIELD FREQUENT SQUALLS AND TSTORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND NE CARIB NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 ACROSS WATERS N OF 16N. FRESH SELY FLOW WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 16N THROUGH MONA PASSAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN GEFS MEAN. WEAK RIDGE ACROSS N PORTIONS PRODUCING MILD FLOW AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ATTM. MEANWHILE COMPLEX TROUGHING EVOLVING OUT OF PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL YIELD A NE TO SE ALIGNED TROUGH LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL NEXT 24-28 HOURS THIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ROTATE MORE NNE TO SSW BY 72 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING W ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND FAR SE BAHAMAS. BROAD WIND FIELD OF NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT SPREADING INTO ATLC WATERS OF NE CARIB AND WILL SHIFT W AND WNW NEXT 48 HOURS TO BUILD SEAS 7-9 FT...WITH HIGHER POSSIBLE MAX. PRESENTLY PREFER THE GEFS MEAN BEYOND 36 HOURS. ALSO NOTICED THAT NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS WERE USED SURROUNDING THIS SPECIAL FEATURE IN MORNING GRID PACKAGE AND WAS WAY TOO LOW...AND WILL HAVE TO UPDATE WITH TONED DOWN WW3 OUTPUT. FREQUENT SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER SE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND NW THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP LAYERED WEAKNESS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE NEAR BERMUDA BY 72 HOURS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST WEATHER TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH...AND NE TO E FLOW DOMINATING REMAINDER OF AREA W OF TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.