000 AGXX40 KNHC 021833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THEN TURNS NW TO THE SE TEXAS COAST. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY TONIGHT ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS...THEN WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REACH THE MEXICAN COAST BY LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE ALREADY OVER THE GULF WATERS S OF 25N W OF 85W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO ENE...AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT W OF THE WAVE AXIS AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...THEN VEER BACK TO SE AND INCREASES AGAIN TO 10-15 KT AND 2-4 FT SEAS E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH A NEARBY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 1-3 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...GENERALLY N OF 14N W OF 80W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE W...SO EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIP TO SHIFT SLOWLY W THROUGH TUE. A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N/59.5W IS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY TROPICAL WAVE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS/LESS THAN 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY START MOVING TO THE W...REACHING 15.5N62.5W TUE MORNING...16.5N66W WED MORNING...AND 20N70.5W THU MORNING. MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS WITH THE LOW/WAVE. THE UKMET AND CMC DEVELOP THE LOW INTO A TC WHILE TAKING IT MORE TO THE NW (CMC TO THE N) INTO THE SW N ATLC. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN (TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD AND MUCH WEAKER EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED LOW)...WHILE THE NEW GFS TAKES IT ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLC. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE E ALONG 51W/52W. SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND WED...THEN THE E CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TRAILING WAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW/WAVE TO ITS W BY MID-WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS THROUGH 120 HOURS...THEN WW3 USED WITH HAND EDITS/CAPPING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 1-3 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A BROAD RIDGE IS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM NEAR 26N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN (1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS)...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 22N WHERE MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE WATERS S OF 22N THROUGH THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF 1009 MB LOW PRES CURRENTLY ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14.5N59.5W. THE UKMET AND CMC SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THE LOW MOVING IT OVER HISPANIOLA AND THEN THE CENTRAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK (THE UKMET TAKES THE LOW TOWARD S FLORIDA WHILE THE CMC TAKES IT MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLC). THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE 06Z RUN APPARENTLY SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH ALSO DEVELOPED THE LOW AND TOOK IT MORE INTO THE ATLC. THE 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS A TRACK TO THE W-NW APPROACHING THE SE BAHAMAS BY SAT WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WITH ANY STRONG WINDS CONFINED NE AWAY FROM THE ELONGATION WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND ATLC RIDGING IS THE TIGHTEST. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL IMPACT THE BASIN GRADUALLY MOVING FROM SE TO NW REACHING 70W BY FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THAT WAVE MAY MERGE WITH THE ONE TO ITS W BY MID-WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT WAVE(S). $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.