000 AGXX40 KNHC 011800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THEN TURNS NW TO THE SE TX COAST. SEAS OF 1-3 FT AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE N...STALLING OUT JUST INLAND MON INTO TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE E AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING W THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND SW GULF WATERS ON TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD PRES PATTERN IN PLACE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR W GULF OF HONDURAS/NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 87W APPROACHING THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TONIGHT...EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N57W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N60.5W TO 10N62W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH SQUALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 17N E OF 65W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE FROM 15N TO 20N E OF 61W. THIS LOW AND WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THEN WHICH WOULD BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE UKMET AND CMC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH BOTH OF THOSE MODELS DEVELOPING A TC WITH A W-NW MOVEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC THINKING AT THIS POINT. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING WITH THEN MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND 5-6 FT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE BASIN THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A THIRD AND MORE SOUTHERN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 47W IS FORECAST TO REACH 55W BY MON NIGHT...MOVING INTO TO SE CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 1015 MB LOW PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N60W TO 29N63W. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH 1019 MB HIGH PRES NOW LOCATED NEAR 27N66W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE HELPING TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS...NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS...AND ALSO THE SE CORNER OF THE BASIN. OVERALL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK MAINTAINING CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION WHERE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 60W/61W CLIPS THE WATERS S OF 22N. THAT PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON MON AND TUE...AND THROUGH THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED. THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT CONTINUES W THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEK $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.