000 AGXX40 KNHC 310537 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 137 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER N-CENTRAL WATERS WILL SHIFT S ALONG 87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS S FL THEN NW TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ALONG THE RIDGE TO E OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THIS ATLC RIDGE MEANDERING FROM SW FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING N ON MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS ON TUE...AND MOVE E OF AREA ON WED...BUT MOISTURE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST IT WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO DEVELOPS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE AND DRIFTS W THROUGH WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT...SEAS 2-4 FT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION. THE HIGH CENTER REDEVELOPS NEAR 27N86W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE CENTRAL LA COASTAL PLAINS ON WED...WITH EASTERLIES AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 2-4 FT OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS...AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT/SEAS 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77-78W AND IS CURRENTLY KICKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR 15N78W. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO MOVE W THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN INCREASING THE EASTERLIES TO 15-20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS BRIEFLY TO 6 FT NEAR 19N86W LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MIDDAY MON. EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL PULSE OVER THE S-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH E WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 54-55W HAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N. NE-E WINDS AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ON SUN AS THE LOW FURTHER S DISSIPATES. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLIES TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE AS THE WAVE PASSES. GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTING NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS ON WED AND THU AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH W CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO CENTRAL FL. A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL AT 30N80W. AN AREA OF S- SW 15-20 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT IS NOTED N OF 29N BETWEEN 65- 55W...BUT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA S OF 31N TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM 27N55W TO NE FL TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO PSN FROM 31N55W TO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...AND TO PSN FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL FL ON WED AND THU. EXPECT E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 21N THROUGH WED WHEN THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.