000
AGXX40 KNHC 301834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

HIGH PRES CENTER OVER N GULF SHIFT S OVER CENTRAL GULF TODAY 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO
GENTLE S-SW WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATE ZONES N OF 26N WHILE
MODERATE E-SE BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT MAINLY S OF 26N. 

HIGH PRES SHIFT E-SE TO 26N86W TONIGHT THEN E OF AREA BY SUN
NIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SW CONUS BRINGS LARGE AREA
OF DRY STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS INTO GULF LIMITING ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITH ONLY MINOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED
OVER COASTAL WATERS IN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND FLORIDA W COAST. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXCEPT TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W TODAY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFT W ACROSS BASIN
THROUGH LATE SUN.  WAVE IS TRAPPED UNDER ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE HOPE TO INTENSIFY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY STILL
BRING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.  IT MAY ALSO BRING FRESH E-SE WINDS TO CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN.  

SECOND AND STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 50W...REACH
ALONG 54W LATE TONIGHT AND ENTER TROPICAL ATLC TONIGHT...E
CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW AT 
13N ALONG WAVE AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENS WAVE AND DISSIPATES
LOW PRES OVER E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN...BUT SUGGESTS FRESH BREEZE
REMAINS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC HIGH PRES HAS RIDGE EXTEND FROM 28N55W ACROSS
NW BAHAMAS TO SE FL. WEAK COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N 
RESULT IN FRESH SW BREEZE AND SEAS 5-7 FT N OF 28N E OF 75W.
TAIL END OF COLD FRONT ENTERS NE CORNER OF BASIN AND QUICKLY
STALL N OF 29N E OF 65W LATE SAT. FRONT DISSIPATES THROUGH LATE
MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS 27N65W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NE FL.
MODERATE E-SE BREEZE AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE WITH
SEAS 4-5 FT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE SE TO S WINDS ELSEWHERE IN BASIN.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.